This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Propels Villa's Surprising Title Charge

It was eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery scolded him for not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or the source of the side's more general malaise.

In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst was entirely far more favourable. After the England international swept in his second to restore the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club continued to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, find themselves a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.

Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?

This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the wins have accumulated.

Per the data, in only two games has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team who have strung together ten consecutive victories, they look strangely fragile – however right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their talisman to rescue them with some crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against United.

His opener originated from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the post from a wide position. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, Manchester United managed more efforts and more direct attempts. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.

A Case for Belief

Could it be another reality whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures might still return to peak condition.

• The main striker may begin to finding the net regularly.
• The winger may rediscover the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
• Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.

This could contain the potential of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would sit in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital Three Lions star.

This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the hero faced the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.