A United Ireland Plebiscite Should Not Become 'A Sequel to Brexit', Experts Alert

Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."